Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.080681 2.205549 2.337019 2.486272 2.651651 2.830025 3.037958
2025-09-28 1.864769 2.032448 2.217357 2.438161 2.697043 2.994019 3.365056
2025-10-05 1.771391 1.969608 2.195699 2.476165 2.819847 3.234394 3.783910
2025-10-12 1.704274 1.925353 2.184482 2.516227 2.938336 3.470512 4.215379
2025-10-19 1.646494 1.884837 2.170666 2.546633 3.041125 3.690084 4.646168
2025-10-26 1.578415 1.825703 2.127663 2.533585 3.082195 3.826937 4.974279
2025-11-02 1.519002 1.772860 2.087784 2.519397 3.117262 3.954676 5.301027
2025-11-09 1.459933 1.716737 2.039564 2.489330 3.125709 4.041978 5.573185
2025-11-16 1.405725 1.663858 1.992158 2.456270 3.125633 4.114091 5.827243
2025-11-23 1.370383 1.633459 1.972269 2.458912 3.175767 4.264935 6.233917
2025-11-30 1.345057 1.614720 1.966482 2.480073 3.253538 4.464994 6.759091
2025-12-07 1.301946 1.570480 1.923813 2.445509 3.243310 4.519954 7.020229
2025-12-14 1.259111 1.525670 1.879281 2.406975 3.225909 4.564033 7.274167
2025-12-21 1.216564 1.479833 1.831544 2.361274 3.194032 4.580218 7.474539
2025-12-28 1.203743 1.473775 1.838823 2.397341 3.295035 4.838616 8.243502
2026-01-04 1.192362 1.469045 1.847420 2.435342 3.401453 5.118674 9.134019
2026-01-11 1.178848 1.460706 1.850235 2.464170 3.494146 5.383864 10.066603
2026-01-18 1.154039 1.435643 1.827686 2.451801 3.514408 5.509333 10.672941
2026-01-25 1.130312 1.411338 1.805271 2.438348 3.531454 5.629770 11.301947
2026-02-01 1.103623 1.382042 1.774449 2.409831 3.519354 5.688075 11.767352
2026-02-08 1.077465 1.352805 1.742763 2.378462 3.499932 5.728650 12.192703
2026-02-15 1.061691 1.338019 1.732138 2.380969 3.542882 5.909638 13.142059
2026-02-22 1.051267 1.330603 1.732248 2.401048 3.619931 6.176909 14.514316